TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Center-As NFL's ultimate kickoff X-factor, Cordarrelle Patterson could produce big returns for Steelers

Time for a quick prediction,TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Center just for the record.

With the NFL’s major overhaul of the kickoff – the look, feel, rules, strategies are all so different this season – how’s that strike Cordarrelle Patterson?

“If I break that first line, it’s over with,” Patterson, who joined the Pittsburgh Steelers as a free agent in March, told USA TODAY Sports. “They’d better have a great plan to stop us, because I know we’re going to be aggressive. Hopefully, we can take five or six to the house this year.”

Talk about seeing the glass as half-full.

Then again, Patterson has credible reasons for such swagger. The 13^th-year vet owns NFL records for most career kickoff-return touchdowns (nine) and for longest kick-return (109 yards). His career mark (29.26 yards) is third-highest in history and the best since Gale Sayers set the record (30.56) from 1965-71.

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But still. This new “dynamic” kickoff, as the NFL calls it, is such a makeover that even the league’s most accomplished kickoff returner could be hard-pressed to find his groove and prove that he’s still as lethal in the return game as he has been for the bulk of his career.

“He’s a stud,” Danny Smith, the Steelers special teams coach, told USA TODAY Sports. “But he’s going to get different types of balls. That’s what I’m going through with him. Those nice kicks to him on the fly? That hang-time is non-existent now. We’re all stationary until that ball hits the ground or it’s touched.

“He’s going to have to field balls all over the place. Number one, because of the rule. And number two, because of who he is. They ain’t letting him camp under the ball and come back.”

Smith is well aware of Patterson’s resume, and how he was such a threat that the league’s longest-tenured special teams coach instructed Steelers kickers not to kick to him to avoid the return. Now, with the new rule, if kickers don’t boot the football to returners positioned in a “landing zone” between the goal-line and 20-yard line, the offenses will begin drives at the 30- or 40-yard lines.

The NFL was inspired to craft a new kickoff formula after the rate of returns hit an all-time low in 2023. Preseason results suggest the new rule, adopted for a one-year trial, is promoting the intended trend. League-wide, 70.5% of kickoffs were returned (296 of 420), compared to a 54.8% rate for the 2023 preseason. The average drive start increased to the 28.8-yard line (24.2 in 2023) and although there were zero kickoff return TDs, there were 18 runbacks of at least 40 yards, compared to nine in 2023.

Adjustments for all parties remain a work in progress.

“We’re working on stuff,” Smith said. “He’ll get better at it, and we’ll go with it. I’ve got to get a couple (touchdowns). He’s got to make me look good.”

Patterson, 33, realizes that he could be digging a lot of footballs out of the dirt, so to speak, before getting up to full speed on any given return. He sounds to be up for such a challenge.

“Oh yeah, it’s crazy,” he said. “They’ve got a lot of rules to follow, too (on kick-coverage units). They can’t just kick it how they want to.

“Last year, I didn’t have a good year with kick returns,” he added, mindful that during an injury-marred season he averaged a career-low 21.9 yards on a career-low seven returns. “So, maybe they’ll think, ‘He’s 33. He ain’t got it no more.’ Hopefully, they’ll take that approach.”

If Patterson rebounds, the Steelers stand to benefit in myriad ways. One of the NFL’s most versatile players, he’s listed as a running back while also equipped to take snaps at what used to be his primary position, wide receiver. He could wind up being the ultimate X-factor for a team trying to reignite its offense behind new quarterback Russell Wilson and build off last season’s cameo playoff appearance.

The Steelers are also Patterson’s sixth NFL team since he came into the league with the Minnesota Vikings in 2013 as a first-round pick (29^th overall). Why Pittsburgh? Arthur Smith, the new offensive coordinator, is a key factor. Patterson was with the Atlanta Falcons for Smith’s entire three-year tenure as coach.

“I get asked all the time: How is Arthur going to use me?” Patterson said. “He’d better use me like he did that first year in Atlanta or me and Arthur are going to have some problems.”

Patterson then let out a hearty laugh.

“Nah, man, he’s a great guy,” Patterson said. “That’s the main reason I came here. I know what he believes in. He’s one of the smartest (expletive) around. He knows everything from the history to any damn thing you can think of. He’s smart as hell.”

The comfort zone is mutual.

“We’ve just been together so long – like an old married couple,” Arthur Smith told USA TODAY Sports. “We can chip at each other, we can be best friends and everything in between. I love CP.”

It’s doubtful that Patterson will carry the type of large role that he had under Smith in 2021, when he played about half of the offensive snaps, logged a career-high 153 carries, matched his career best with 52 receptions and scored a career-high 11 TDs. Last season, he played just 19% of the offensive snaps.

Now he’s is pegged to be the No. 3 running back behind Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. But Patterson demonstrated that he still has some explosiveness during the preseason finale at Detroit, when he ripped off a 31-yard TD run. It’s also possible he could log significant snaps lining up in the slot or out wide, which means that during a typical work week he could wind up in multiple meeting rooms.

“CP is such a unique player,” Arthur Smith said. “So, he’s been in so many meeting rooms with us on offense. He knows what I want. In multiple spots.”

Maybe Patterson will be the first Steeler to officially touch the football, on a kickoff return, to christen the regular season on Sept. 8 – in Atlanta of all places. It would be quite symbolic. In each of the three seasons Patterson played under Smith, the Falcons finished 7-10.

“We had some good times,” Patterson said. “And we had some bad times, because we couldn’t win for the city of Atlanta. If anybody ever had doubts about that, we did everything in our power, week in and week out, to help that team get a championship. We just couldn't get the job done. It was unfortunate for it to happen the way it did. But I’m happy to be where I’m at. It’s a great opportunity.”

Especially if he can break through the first line of defense.